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Thursday January 20th, 2011
Oliver Wight, the famous MRP consultant was fond of saying there are only two types of forecasts… “Lucky or Lousy!” Yet even Wight conceded that there is much the average manufacturing company can do to improve the quality of shipment forecasts.
The purpose of this Professional Development presentation is to describe a better forecasting framework and outline some specific ideas for dramatically improving the quality of your shipments forecasts. The tangible techniques that Alan Dunn will present may not be easy to implement in all companies, but will surely be easier to implement than poor customer deliveries and ballooning inventories will be to explain… in any company!
Supply-chain professionals must NEVER stop thinking about the integrity of the shipment forecast… or how to recover from unpredictable demands. This is because a shipment forecast represents independent demand for company products, which in turn drives the Master Production Schedule (MPS) process. Start with an inaccurate shipment forecast and a poor performing MPS is sure to follow. Continue with a poor forecasting process and inventory will surely balloon at the same time customer shortages increase. When forecasting is an afterthought, no one is happy… especially in LEAN production environments where most inventory buffers have been removed.
This powerful and important presentation has four important learning objectives:
- Learn how to organize for improved forecasting, including the role of the “Chief Forecaster.”
- Understand the importance of equally considering past, present and future data in order to understand the direction and projected magnitude of customer shipments.
- Learn what future information goes into a “Market Requirements Definition” (MRD) document and how it should be created and maintained.
- Learn what to do when demand simply cannot be accurately predicted.
Additional forecasting techniques and thought will also be addressed, including:
- How to use “back-casting” techniques to better model repeatable trends and seasonality.
- How to build a “Master Planning Office” that works as a control center for the entire supply and demand process.
- The integration of the Chief Forecaster role with the Master Production Scheduler and Order Entry personnel… why these groups need to collaborate on a daily basis.
Mr. Dunn’s presentations are always known to be full of practical ideas that can be readily implemented by anyone in attendance. Won’t you join us for this exciting program and learn how your company can improve its unit forecasts and reduce the impacts of forecast error?
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